Derive some facts of the negative binomial distribution

The previous post called The Negative Binomial Distribution gives a fairly comprehensive discussion of the negative binomial distribution. In this post, we fill in some of the details that are glossed over in that previous post. We derive the following points:

  • Discuss the several versions of the negative binomial distribution.
  • The negative binomial probabilities sum to one, i.e., the negative binomial probability function is a valid one.
  • Derive the moment generating function of the negative binomial distribution.
  • Derive the first and second moments and the variance of the negative binomial distribution.
  • An observation about independent sum of negative binomial distributions.

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Three versions

The negative binomial distribution has two parameters r and p, where r is a positive real number and 0<p<1. The first two versions arise from the case that r is a positive integer, which can be interpreted as the random experiment of a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials until the rth success (the trials have the same probability of success p). In this interpretation, there are two ways of recording the random experiment:

    X = the number of Bernoulli trials required to get the rth success.
    Y = the number of Bernoulli trials that end in failure before getting the rth success.

The other parameter p is the probability of success in each Bernoulli trial. The notation \binom{m}{n} is the binomial coefficient where m and n are non-negative integers and m \ge n is defined as:

    \displaystyle \binom{m}{n}=\frac{m!}{n! \ (m-n)!}=\frac{m(m-1) \cdots (m-(n-1))}{n!} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (0)

With this in mind, the following are the probability functions of the random variables X and Y.

    \displaystyle P(X=x)= \binom{x-1}{r-1} p^r (1-p)^{x-r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ x=r,r+1,r+2,\cdots \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (1)

    \displaystyle P(Y=y)=\binom{y+r-1}{y} p^r (1-p)^y \ \ \ \ \ \ \ y=0,1,2,\cdots \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (2)

The thought process for (1) is that for the event X=x to happen, there can only be r-1 successes in the first x-1 trials and one additional success occurring in the last trial (the xth trial). The thought process for (2) is that for the event Y=y to happen, there are y+r trials (y failures and r successes). In the first y+r-1 trials, there can be only y failures (or equivalently r-1 successes). Note that X=Y+r. Thus knowing the mean of Y will derive the mean of X, a fact we will use below.

Instead of memorizing the probability functions (1) and (2), it is better to understand and remember the thought processes involved. Because of the natural interpretation of performing Bernoulli trials until the rth success, it is a good idea to introduce the negative binomial distribution via the distributions described by (1) and (2), i.e., the case where the parameter r is a positive integer. When r=1, the random experiment is a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials until the first success (this is called the geometric distribution).

Of course, (1) and (2) can also simply be used as counting distributions without any connection with a series of Bernoulli trials (e.g. used in an insurance context as the number of losses or claims arising from a group of insurance policies).

The binomial coefficient in (0) is defined when both numbers are non-negative integers and that the top one is greater than or equal to the bottom one. However, the rightmost term in (0) can be calculated even when the top number m is not a non-negative integer. Thus when m is any real number, the rightmost term (0) can be calculated provided that the bottom number n is a positive integer. For convenience we define \binom{m}{0}=1. With this in mind, the binomial coefficient \binom{m}{n} is defined for any real number m and any non-negative integer n.

The third version of the negative binomial distribution arises from the relaxation of the binomial coefficient \binom{m}{n} just discussed. With this in mind, the probability function in (2) can be defined for any positive real number r:

    \displaystyle P(Y=y)=\binom{y+r-1}{y} p^r (1-p)^y \ \ \ \ \ \ \ y=0,1,2,\cdots \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (3)

where \displaystyle \binom{y+r-1}{y}=\frac{(y+r-1)(y+r-2) \cdots (r+1)r}{y!}.

Of course when r is a positive integer, versions (2) and (3) are identical. When r is a positive real number but is not an integer, the distribution cannot be interpreted as the number of failures until the occurrence of rth success. Instead, it is used as a counting distribution.

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The probabilities sum to one

Do the probabilities in (1), (2) or (3) sum to one? For the interpretations of (1) and (2), is it possible to repeatedly perform Bernoulli trials and never get the rth success? For r=1, is it possible to never even get a success? In tossing a fair coin repeatedly, soon enough you will get a head and even if r is a large number, you will eventually get r number of heads. Here we wish to prove this fact mathematically.

To show that (1), (2) and (3) are indeed probability functions, we use a fact concerning Maclaurin’s series expansion of the function (1-x)^{-r}, a fact that is covered in a calculus course. In the following two results, r is a fixed positive real number and y is any non-negative integer:

    \displaystyle \binom{y+r-1}{y}=(-1)^y \ \binom{-r}{y} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (4)

    \displaystyle \sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty (-1)^y \ \binom{-r}{y} \ x^y=(1-x)^{-r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (5)

The result (4) is to rearrange the binomial coefficient in probability function (3) to another binomial coefficient with a negative number. This is why there is the word “negative” in negative binomial distribution. The result (5) is the Maclaurin’s series expansion for the function (1-x)^{-r}. We first derive these two facts and then use them to show that the negative binomial probabilities in (3) sum to one. The following derives (4).

    \displaystyle \begin{aligned} \binom{y+r-1}{y}&=\frac{(y+r-1)(y+r-2) \cdots (r+1)r}{y!} \\&=(-1)^y \ \frac{(-r)(-r-1) \cdots (-r-(y-1))}{y!} \\&=(-1)^y \ \binom{-r}{y}  \end{aligned}

To derive (5), let f(x)=(1-x)^{-r}. Based on a theorem that can be found in most calculus text, the function f(x) has the following Maclaurin’s series expansion (Maclaurin’s series is simply Taylor’s series with center = 0).

    \displaystyle (1-x)^{-r}=f(0)+f^{'}(0)x+\frac{f^{(2)}(0)}{2!}x^2+\frac{f^{(3)}(0)}{3!}x^3+\cdots + \frac{f^{(n)}(0)}{n!}x^n+\cdots

where -1<x<1. Now, filling in the derivatives f^{(n)}(0), we have the following derivation.

    \displaystyle \begin{aligned} (1-x)^{-r}&=1+rx+\frac{(r+1)r}{2!}x^2+\frac{(r+2)(r+1)r}{3!}x^3 \\& \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ +\cdots+\frac{(r+y-1)(r+y-2) \cdots (r+1)r}{y!}x^y +\cdots \\&=1+(-1)^1 (-r)x+(-1)^2\frac{(-r)(-r-1)}{2!}x^2 \\& \ \ \ \ \ \ +(-1)^3 \frac{(-r)(-r-1)(-r-2)}{3!}x^3 +\cdots \\& \ \ \ \ \ \ +(-1)^y \frac{(-r)(-r-1) \cdots (-r-y+2)(-r-y+1)}{y!}x^y +\cdots  \\&=(-1)^0 \binom{-r}{0}x^0 +(-1)^1 \binom{-r}{1}x^1+(-1)^2 \binom{-r}{2}x^2 \\& \ \ \ \ \ \ +(-1)^3 \binom{-r}{3}x^3+\cdots +(-1)^y \binom{-r}{y}x^y+\cdots    \\&=\sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty (-1)^y \ \binom{-r}{y} \ x^y \end{aligned}

We can now show that the negative binomial probabilities in (3) sum to one. Let q=1-p.

    \displaystyle \begin{aligned} \sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty \binom{y+r-1}{y} \ p^r \ q^y &=p^r \ \sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty (-1)^y \ \binom{-r}{y} \ q^y \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{using } (4) \\&=p^r \ (1-q)^{-r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{using } (5)\\&=p^r p^{-r} \\&=1 \end{aligned}

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The moment generating function

We now derive the moment generating function of the negative binomial distribution according to (3). The moment generation function is M(t)=E(e^{tY}) over all real numbers t for which M(t) is defined. The following derivation does the job.

    \displaystyle \begin{aligned} M(t)&=E(e^{tY}) \\&=\sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty \ e^{t y} \ \binom{y+r-1}{y} \ p^r \ (1-p)^y \\&=p^r \ \sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty  \ \binom{y+r-1}{y} \ [(1-p) e^t]^y \\&=p^r \ \sum \limits_{y=0}^\infty  \ (-1)^y \binom{-r}{y} \ [(1-p) e^t]^y \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{using } (4) \\&=p^r \ [1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{-r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{using } (5) \\&=\frac{p^r}{[1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{r}}\end{aligned}

The above moment generating function works for the negative binomial distribution with respect to (3) and thus to (2). For the distribution in (1), note that X=Y+r. Thus E(e^{tX})=E(e^{t(Y+r)})=e^{tr} \ E(e^{tY}). The moment generating function of (1) is simply the above moment generating function multiplied by the factor e^{tr}. To summarize, the moment generating functions for the three versions are:

    \displaystyle M_X(t)=E[e^{tX}]=\frac{p^r \ e^{tr}}{[1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{r}} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{for } (1)

    \displaystyle M_Y(t)=E[e^{tY}]=\frac{p^r}{[1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{r}} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \text{for } (2) \text{ and } (3)

The domain of the moment generating function is the set of all t that for which M_X(t) or M_Y(t) is defined and is positive. Based on the form that it takes, we focus on making sure that 1-(1-p) \ e^t>0. This leads to the domain t<-\text{ln}(1-p).

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The mean and the variance

With the moment generating function derived in the above section, we can now focus on finding the moments of the negative binomial distribution. To find the moments, simply take the derivatives of the moment generating function and evaluate at t=0. For the distribution represented by the probability function in (3), we calculate the following:

    E(Y)=M_Y^{'}(0)

    E(Y^2)=M_Y^{(2)}(0)

    Var(Y)=E(Y^2)-E(Y)^2

After taking the first and second derivatives and evaluate at t=0, the first and the second moments are:

    \displaystyle E(Y)=r \ \frac{1-p}{p}

    \displaystyle E(Y^2)=\frac{r(1-p)[1+(1-p)]}{p^2}

The following derives the variance.

    \displaystyle \begin{aligned} Var(Y)&=E(Y^2)-E(Y)^2 \\&=\frac{r(1-p)[1+(1-p)]}{p^2}-\frac{(1-p)^2}{p^2} \\&=\frac{r(1-p)[1+r(1-p)-r(1-p)]}{p^2} \\&=\frac{r(1-p)}{p^2}  \end{aligned}

The above formula is the variance for the three versions (1), (2) and (3). Note that Var(Y)>E(Y). In contrast, the variance of the Poisson distribution is identical to its mean. Thus in the situation where the variance of observed data is greater than the sample mean, the negative binomial distribution should be a better fit than the Poisson distribution.

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The independent sum

There is an easy consequence that follows from the moment generating function derived above. The sum of several independent negative binomial distributions is also a negative binomial distribution. For example, suppose T_1,T_2, \cdots,T_n are independent negative binomial random variables (version (3)). Suppose each T_j has parameters r_j and p (the second parameter is identical). The moment generating function of the independent sum is the product of the individual moment generating functions. Thus the following is the moment generating function of T=T_1+\cdots+T_n.

    \displaystyle M_T(t)=E[e^{tT}]=\frac{p^g}{[1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{g}}

where g=r_1+\cdots+r_n. The moment generating function uniquely identifies the distribution. The above M_T(t) is that of a negative binomial distribution with parameters g and p according to (3).

A special case is that the sum of n independent geometric distributions is a negative binomial distribution with the r parameter being r=n. The following is the moment generating function of the sum W of n independent geometric distributions.

    \displaystyle M_W(t)=E[e^{tW}]=\frac{p^n}{[1-(1-p) \ e^t]^{n}}

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\copyright \ \text{2015 by Dan Ma}

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Relating Binomial and Negative Binomial

The negative binomial distribution has a natural intepretation as a waiting time until the arrival of the rth success (when the parameter r is a positive integer). The waiting time refers to the number of independent Bernoulli trials needed to reach the rth success. This interpretation of the negative binomial distribution gives us a good way of relating it to the binomial distribution. For example, if the rth success takes place after k failed Bernoulli trials (for a total of k+r trials), then there can be at most r-1 successes in the first k+r trials. This tells us that the survival function of the negative binomial distribution is the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a binomial distribution. In this post, we gives the details behind this observation. A previous post on the negative binomial distribution is found here.

A random experiment resulting in two distinct outcomes (success or failure) is called a Bernoulli trial (e.g. head or tail in a coin toss, whether or not the birthday of a customer is the first of January, whether an insurance claim is above or below a given threshold etc). Suppose a series of independent Bernoulli trials are performed until reaching the rth success where the probability of success in each trial is p. Let X_r be the number of failures before the occurrence of the rth success. The following is the probablity mass function of X_r.

\displaystyle (1) \ \ \ \ P(X_r)=\binom{k+r-1}{k} p^r (1-p)^k \ \ \ \ \ \ k=0,1,2,3,\cdots

Be definition, the survival function and cdf of X_r are:

\displaystyle (2) \ \ \ \ P(X_r > k)=\sum \limits_{j=k+1}^\infty \binom{j+r-1}{j} p^r (1-p)^j \ \ \ \ \ \ k=0,1,2,3,\cdots

\displaystyle (3) \ \ \ \ P(X_r \le k)=\sum \limits_{j=0}^k \binom{j+r-1}{j} p^r (1-p)^j \ \ \ \ \ \ k=0,1,2,3,\cdots

For each positive integer k, let Y_{r+k} be the number of successes in performing a sequence of r+k independent Bernoulli trials where p is the probability of success. In other words, Y_{r+k} has a binomial distribution with parameters r+k and p.

If the random experiment requires more than k failures to reach the rth success, there are at most r-1 successes in the first k+r trails. Thus the survival function of X_r is the same as the cdf of a binomial distribution. Equivalently, the cdf of X_r is the same as the survival function of a binomial distribution. We have the following:

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(4) \ \ \ \ P(X_r > k)&=P(Y_{k+r} \le r-1) \\&=\sum \limits_{j=0}^{r-1} \binom{k+r}{j} p^j (1-p)^{k+r-j} \ \ \ \ \ \ k=0,1,2,3,\cdots \end{aligned}

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(5) \ \ \ \ P(X_r \le k)&=P(Y_{k+r} > r-1) \ \ \ \ \ \ k=0,1,2,3,\cdots \end{aligned}

Remark
The relation (4) is analogous to the relationship between the Gamma distribution and the Poisson distribution. Recall that a Gamma distribution with shape parameter \alpha and scale parameter n, where n is a positive integer, can be interpreted as the waiting time until the nth change in a Poisson process. Thus, if the nth change takes place after time t, there can be at most n-1 arrivals in the time interval [0,t]. Thus the survival function of this Gamma distribution is the same as the cdf of a Poisson distribution. The relation (4) is analogous to the following relation.

\displaystyle (5) \ \ \ \ \int_t^\infty \frac{\alpha^n}{(n-1)!} \ x^{n-1} \ e^{-\alpha x} \ dx=\sum \limits_{j=0}^{n-1} \frac{e^{-\alpha t} \ (\alpha t)^j}{j!}

A previous post on the negative binomial distribution is found here.

The Negative Binomial Distribution

A counting distribution is a discrete distribution with probabilities only on the nonnegative integers. Such distributions are important in insurance applications since they can be used to model the number of events such as losses to the insured or claims to the insurer. Though playing a prominent role in statistical theory, the Poisson distribution is not appropriate in all situations, since it requires that the mean and the variance are equaled. Thus the negative binomial distribution is an excellent alternative to the Poisson distribution, especially in the cases where the observed variance is greater than the observed mean.

The negative binomial distribution arises naturally from a probability experiment of performing a series of independent Bernoulli trials until the occurrence of the rth success where r is a positive integer. From this starting point, we discuss three ways to define the distribution. We then discuss several basic properties of the negative binomial distribution. Emphasis is placed on the close connection between the Poisson distribution and the negative binomial distribution.

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Definitions
We define three versions of the negative binomial distribution. The first two versions arise from the view point of performing a series of independent Bernoulli trials until the rth success where r is a positive integer. A Bernoulli trial is a probability experiment whose outcome is random such that there are two possible outcomes (success or failure).

Let X_1 be the number of Bernoulli trials required for the rth success to occur where r is a positive integer. Let p is the probability of success in each trial. The following is the probability function of X_1:

\displaystyle (1) \ \ \ \ \ P(X_1=x)= \binom{x-1}{r-1} p^r (1-p)^{x-r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ x=r,r+1,r+2,\cdots

The idea for (1) is that for X_1=x to happen, there must be r-1 successes in the first x-1 trials and one additional success occurring in the last trial (the xth trial).

A more common version of the negative binomial distribution is the number of Bernoulli trials in excess of r in order to produce the rth success. In other words, we consider the number of failures before the occurrence of the rth success. Let X_2 be this random variable. The following is the probability function of X_2:

\displaystyle (2) \ \ \ \ \ P(X_2=x)=\binom{x+r-1}{x} p^r (1-p)^x \ \ \ \ \ \ \ x=0,1,2,\cdots

The idea for (2) is that there are x+r trials and in the first x+r-1 trials, there are x failures (or equivalently r-1 successes).

In both (1) and (2), the binomial coefficient is defined by

\displaystyle (3) \ \ \ \ \ \binom{y}{k}=\frac{y!}{k! \ (y-k)!}=\frac{y(y-1) \cdots (y-(k-1))}{k!}

where y is a positive integer and k is a nonnegative integer. However, the right-hand-side of (3) can be calculated even if y is not a positive integer. Thus the binomial coefficient \displaystyle \binom{y}{k} can be expanded to work for all real number y. However k must still be nonnegative integer.

\displaystyle (4) \ \ \ \ \ \binom{y}{k}=\frac{y(y-1) \cdots (y-(k-1))}{k!}

For convenience, we let \displaystyle \binom{y}{0}=1. When the real number y>k-1, the binomial coefficient in (4) can be expressed as:

\displaystyle (5) \ \ \ \ \ \binom{y}{k}=\frac{\Gamma(y+1)}{\Gamma(k+1) \Gamma(y-k+1)}

where \Gamma(\cdot) is the gamma function.

With the more relaxed notion of binomial coefficient, the probability function in (2) above can be defined for all real number r. Thus the general version of the negative binomial distribution has two parameters r and p, both real numbers, such that 0<p<1. The following is its probability function.

\displaystyle (6) \ \ \ \ \ P(X=x)=\binom{x+r-1}{x} p^r (1-p)^x \ \ \ \ \ \ \ x=0,1,2,\cdots

Whenever r in (6) is a real number that is not a positive integer, the interpretation of counting the number of failures until the occurrence of the rth success is no longer important. Instead we can think of it simply as a count distribution.

The following alternative parametrization of the negative binomial distribution is also useful.

\displaystyle (6a) \ \ \ \ \ P(X=x)=\binom{x+r-1}{x} \biggl(\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^r \biggl(\frac{1}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^x \ \ \ \ \ \ \ x=0,1,2,\cdots

The parameters in this alternative parametrization are r and \alpha>0. Clearly, the ratio \frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1} takes the place of p in (6). Unless stated otherwise, we use the parametrization of (6).
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What is negative about the negative binomial distribution?
What is negative about this distribution? What is binomial about this distribution? The name is suggested by the fact that the binomial coefficient in (6) can be rearranged as follows:

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(7) \ \ \ \ \ \binom{x+r-1}{x}&=\frac{(x+r-1)(x+r-2) \cdots r}{x!} \\&=(-1)^x \frac{(-r-(x-1))(-r-(x-2)) \cdots (-r)}{x!} \\&=(-1)^x \frac{(-r)(-r-1) \cdots (-r-(x-1))}{x!} \\&=(-1)^x \binom{-r}{x} \end{aligned}

The calculation in (7) can be used to verify that (6) is indeed a probability function, that is, all the probabilities sum to 1.

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(8) \ \ \ \ \ 1&=p^r p^{-r}\\&=p^r (1-q)^{-r} \\&=p^r \sum \limits_{x=0}^\infty \binom{-r}{x} (-q)^x \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (8.1) \\&=p^r \sum \limits_{x=0}^\infty (-1)^x \binom{-r}{x} q^x \\&=\sum \limits_{x=0}^\infty \binom{x+r-1}{x} p^r q^x \end{aligned}

In (8), we take q=1-p. The step (8.1) above uses the following formula known as the Newton’s binomial formula.

\displaystyle (9) \ \ \ \ \ (1+t)^w=\sum \limits_{k=0}^\infty \binom{w}{k} t^k

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The Generating Function
By definition, the following is the generating function of the negative binomial distribution, using :

\displaystyle (10) \ \ \ \ \ g(z)=\sum \limits_{x=0}^\infty \binom{r+x-1}{x} p^r q^x z^x

where q=1-p. Using a similar calculation as in (8), the generating function can be simplified as:

\displaystyle (11) \ \ \ \ \ g(z)=p^r (1-q z)^{-r}=\frac{p^r}{(1-q z)^r}=\frac{p^r}{(1-(1-p) z)^r}; \ \ \ \ \ z<\frac{1}{1-p}

As a result, the moment generating function of the negative binomial distribution is:

\displaystyle (12) \ \ \ \ \ M(t)=\frac{p^r}{(1-(1-p) e^t)^r}; \ \ \ \ \ \ \ t<-ln(1-p)

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Independent Sum

One useful property of the negative binomial distribution is that the independent sum of negative binomial random variables, all with the same parameter p, also has a negative binomial distribution. Let Y=Y_1+Y_2+\cdots+Y_n be an independent sum such that each X_i has a negative binomial distribution with parameters r_i and p. Then the sum Y=Y_1+Y_2+\cdots+Y_n has a negative binomial distribution with parameters r=r_1+\cdots+r_n and p.

Note that the generating function of an independent sum is the product of the individual generating functions. The following shows that the product of the individual generating functions is of the same form as (11), thus proving the above assertion.

\displaystyle (13) \ \ \ \ \ h(z)=\frac{p^{\sum \limits_{i=1}^n r_i}}{(1-(1-p) z)^{\sum \limits_{i=1}^n r_i}}
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Mean and Variance
The mean and variance can be obtained from the generating function. From E(X)=g'(1) and E(X^2)=g'(1)+g^{(2)}(1), we have:

\displaystyle (14) \ \ \ \ \ E(X)=\frac{r(1-p)}{p} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ Var(X)=\frac{r(1-p)}{p^2}

Note that Var(X)=\frac{1}{p} E(X)>E(X). Thus when the sample data suggest that the variance is greater than the mean, the negative binomial distribution is an excellent alternative to the Poisson distribution. For example, suppose that the sample mean and the sample variance are 3.6 and 7.1. In exploring the possibility of fitting the data using the negative binomial distribution, we would be interested in the negative binomial distribution with this mean and variance. Then plugging these into (14) produces the negative binomial distribution with r=3.7 and p=0.507.
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The Poisson-Gamma Mixture
One important application of the negative binomial distribution is that it is a mixture of a family of Poisson distributions with Gamma mixing weights. Thus the negative binomial distribution can be viewed as a generalization of the Poisson distribution. The negative binomial distribution can be viewed as a Poisson distribution where the Poisson parameter is itself a random variable, distributed according to a Gamma distribution. Thus the negative binomial distribution is known as a Poisson-Gamma mixture.

In an insurance application, the negative binomial distribution can be used as a model for claim frequency when the risks are not homogeneous. Let N has a Poisson distribution with parameter \theta, which can be interpreted as the number of claims in a fixed period of time from an insured in a large pool of insureds. There is uncertainty in the parameter \theta, reflecting the risk characteristic of the insured. Some insureds are poor risks (with large \theta) and some are good risks (with small \theta). Thus the parameter \theta should be regarded as a random variable \Theta. The following is the conditional distribution of N (conditional on \Theta=\theta):

\displaystyle (15) \ \ \ \ \ P(N=n \lvert \Theta=\theta)=\frac{e^{-\theta} \ \theta^n}{n!} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ n=0,1,2,\cdots

Suppose that \Theta has a Gamma distribution with scale parameter \alpha and shape parameter \beta. The following is the probability density function of \Theta.

\displaystyle (16) \ \ \ \ \ g(\theta)=\frac{\alpha^\beta}{\Gamma(\beta)} \theta^{\beta-1} e^{-\alpha \theta} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \theta>0

Then the joint density of N and \Theta is:

\displaystyle (17) \ \ \ \ \ P(N=n \lvert \Theta=\theta) \ g(\theta)=\frac{e^{-\theta} \ \theta^n}{n!} \ \frac{\alpha^\beta}{\Gamma(\beta)} \theta^{\beta-1} e^{-\alpha \theta}

The unconditional distribution of N is obtained by summing out \theta in (17).

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(18) \ \ \ \ \ P(N=n)&=\int_0^\infty P(N=n \lvert \Theta=\theta) \ g(\theta) \ d \theta \\&=\int_0^\infty \frac{e^{-\theta} \ \theta^n}{n!} \ \frac{\alpha^\beta}{\Gamma(\beta)} \ \theta^{\beta-1} \ e^{-\alpha \theta} \ d \theta \\&=\int_0^\infty \frac{\alpha^\beta}{n! \ \Gamma(\beta)} \ \theta^{n+\beta-1} \ e^{-(\alpha+1) \theta} d \theta \\&=\frac{\alpha^\beta}{n! \ \Gamma(\beta)} \ \frac{\Gamma(n+\beta)}{(\alpha+1)^{n+\beta}} \int_0^\infty \frac{(\alpha+1)^{n+\beta}}{\Gamma(n+\beta)} \theta^{n+\beta-1} \ e^{-(\alpha+1) \theta} d \theta \\&=\frac{\alpha^\beta}{n! \ \Gamma(\beta)} \ \frac{\Gamma(n+\beta)}{(\alpha+1)^{n+\beta}} \\&=\frac{\Gamma(n+\beta)}{\Gamma(n+1) \ \Gamma(\beta)} \ \biggl( \frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^\beta \ \biggl(\frac{1}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^n \\&=\binom{n+\beta-1}{n} \ \biggl( \frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^\beta \ \biggl(\frac{1}{\alpha+1}\biggr)^n \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ n=0,1,2,\cdots \end{aligned}

Note that the integral in the fourth step in (18) is 1.0 since the integrand is the pdf of a Gamma distribution. The above probability function is that of a negative binomial distribution. It is of the same form as (6a). Equivalently, it is also of the form (6) with parameter r=\beta and p=\frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1}.

The variance of the negative binomial distribution is greater than the mean. In a Poisson distribution, the mean equals the variance. Thus the unconditional distribution of N is more dispersed than its conditional distributions. This is a characteristic of mixture distributions. The uncertainty in the parameter variable \Theta has the effect of increasing the unconditional variance of the mixture distribution of N. The variance of a mixture distribution has two components, the weighted average of the conditional variances and the variance of the conditional means. The second component represents the additional variance introduced by the uncertainty in the parameter \Theta (see The variance of a mixture).

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The Poisson Distribution as Limit of Negative Binomial
There is another connection to the Poisson distribution, that is, the Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the negative binomial distribution. We show that the generating function of the Poisson distribution can be obtained by taking the limit of the negative binomial generating function as r \rightarrow \infty. Interestingly, the Poisson distribution is also the limit of the binomial distribution.

In this section, we use the negative binomial parametrization of (6a). By replacing \frac{\alpha}{\alpha+1} for p, the following are the mean, variance, and the generating function for the probability function in (6a):

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(19) \ \ \ \ \ \ &E(X)=\frac{r}{\alpha} \\&\text{ }\\&Var(X)=\frac{\alpha+1}{\alpha} \ \frac{r}{\alpha}=\frac{r(\alpha+1)}{\alpha^2} \\&\text{ } \\&g(z)=\frac{1}{[1-\frac{1}{\alpha}(z-1)]^r} \ \ \ \ \ \ \ z<\alpha+1 \end{aligned}

Let r goes to infinity and \displaystyle \frac{1}{\alpha} goes to zero and at the same time keeping their product constant. Thus \displaystyle \mu=\frac{r}{\alpha} is constant (this is the mean of the negative binomial distribution). We show the following:

\displaystyle (20) \ \ \ \ \ \lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} [1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]^{-r}=e^{\mu (z-1)}

The right-hand side of (20) is the generating function of the Poisson distribution with mean \mu. The generating function in the left-hand side is that of a negative binomial distribution with mean \displaystyle \mu=\frac{r}{\alpha}. The following is the derivation of (20).

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(21) \ \ \ \ \ \lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} [1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]^{-r}&=\lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} e^{\displaystyle \biggl(ln[1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]^{-r}\biggr)} \\&=\lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} e^{\displaystyle \biggl(-r \ ln[1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]\biggr)} \\&=e^{\displaystyle \biggl(\lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} -r \ ln[1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]\biggr)} \end{aligned}

We now focus on the limit in the exponent.

\displaystyle \begin{aligned}(22) \ \ \ \ \ \lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} -r \ ln[1-\frac{\mu}{r}(z-1)]&=\lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{ln(1-\frac{\mu}{r} (z-1))^{-1}}{r^{-1}} \\&=\lim \limits_{r \rightarrow \infty} \frac{(1-\frac{\mu}{r} (z-1)) \ \mu (z-1) r^{-2}}{r^{-2}} \\&=\mu (z-1) \end{aligned}

The middle step in (22) uses the L’Hopital’s Rule. The result in (20) is obtained by combining (21) and (22).

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Reference

  1. Klugman S.A., Panjer H. H., Wilmot G. E. Loss Models, From Data to Decisions, Second Edition., Wiley-Interscience, a John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 2004